The Bradley effect is a proposed explanation for observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some American political campaigns when a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other.
The Bradley effect refers to an alleged tendency on the part of some voters to tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a black candidate, and yet, on election day, vote for his/her white opponent.
Is the Bradley effect playing a part in the poll numbers?
Yes, but it doesnt account for all the poll number irregularities. Some of it is using oversampling of democrats and undersampling of republicans based on the 2006 election turnout, but that was when republicans stayed out home out of shame. That will likely not be the case this time. Is the Bradley effect playing a part in the poll numbers?
Most opinion makers have decided that the Bradley effect insofar as one exists this cycle is very small and limited to the undecided voters.
This is for several reasons:
The Democratic primary polls were largely accurate. Thus, racist Democrats said that they were voting for Hillary and then did.
The other racists probably would have voted Republican anyway.
There are plenty of reasons to say that you are voting for McCain instead of Obama, even for racist Hillary supporters.
There are certainly many more reasons, but these are the more important ones. But, just think about it a minute, does it make sense that someone would lie to someone they don't know over the phone, saying that they intend to vote for Obama when they don't? What is the incentive? I think, though, that the undecideds will break unevenly for McCain, based on race, which acts opposite of the conventional wisdom that undecideds break for the non-incumbent.
I don't think it will be the Bradley effect. I think if Obama loses, it will be because of the young voters saying they will vote for him, but not actually going to the polls that day. I think alot will say, ';I'm to busy, others will vote for him and he is ahead in the polls.'; Better hope there isn't alot of people partying on Monday night football and have a hang over the next morning!! Hahaha!!
It may have some, - Several serious writers have suggested that in 2008 it isn't so likely. I hope they aren't being too sanguine.
All it needs is a 3% Bradley effect, and a 3% no show for overconfident Obama supporters, and the McCain-Palin ticket gets it.
Moral of the story? Get out there and vote!
It could be but I'd say the states most likely to skew the polls with the Bradley effect are already red (the southeast and the plains states).
I can't tell the future any better than anyone else but I'd be surprised if the Bradley effect will be strong enough to swing this election.
In the case of Obama, who is raising over 70 Million per month in contributions, there is likely a large majority of the people voting and supporting him. Check the news on Nov. 5th and they will tell you that Obama is the President Elect.
Yes, it is estimated that between 5%-10% of voters, mostly white independents, will perform an insidious act once they're hidden inside the poll booth. They will vote for McSame, despite proclaiming otherwise.
No, It is not look what happened in the Democratic primary. Obama was actually doing better than polls predicted.
I'm cynical enough to think it is.
I remember Tom Bradley's bid for Calif. Governor. Sad, sad, sad.
Nope, america has come along way from then. The racist are out spoken and you can find most of them in the RNC rallies.
No...Bradley effect...1982. That was 26 years ago. Yea....maybe disco will make a comeback too....LMAO!!!
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